By R Kambak

June 27, 2017

SNAP SHOT ON TECH AAPL & VGT

In six hours of trading – over a 24-hour period – Apple’s (NASDAQ: APPLE) surge north to regain the $155 price point has been short lived.  The carnage of the tech exchange behemoth NASDAQ exchange (-100.53 pts) yarded it down to close this day’s trading like a sinking battleship: -3.29% or -$4.88.

The input array of AAPL price move shows that the R-SQ polynomial trend line is pointing toward more bearish moves over the next two periods – days.

AAPL TOS CHARTS

Think back:  On the historic date of June 6th (D-Day) when Allied Forces invaded Normandy over 70 years ago, AAPL met resistance upon its own beachhead assault shamefully retreating back to a previous low at $142.16.  A fateful loss for the Bulls:  -$13.57   or   -8.71%.

Since June 12th, AAPL is showing a typical range bound tactic that Dark Pools bezel when shadowing their inventory against High Frequency Predators.

Make a note of it for the consolidation of the last nine days.  Incremental buying of shares is orchestrated from their investor’s inventory, chipping away at the current downside.

The price range is $5.88 or 4.13% ($142.16 & $148.23).  The rule of thumb for identifying a DP versus HFT gamester plays is this price range around 5%.  The incremental purchases are as clandestine as Jason Bourne playing tag with the CIA.

Hedge Funds and iPhone 8

Hedge Funds are sidelined going into the last days of June.  They bullied out their monthly margin profit on shorting a floundering crude oil commodity price point for the last three weeks.

Tickly, according stock almanacs post Memorial Day weekend trend is bullish; including fossil fuel.  Not this time.

I imagine they’ve all retreated to their favorite watering holes – having a torrid tropical beach love affair, salivating over the Slashleaks announcement of the smartphone disruptor “supersized” “super skinny bezel”  iPhone 8.

The schematics are on vapor sale… just when will damn thing be delivered is anyone’s guess.

So how can we reduce our risk while catching the mouse before the cat? And making the cash to buy own iPhone 8 before the wealthy elite have bought them all up?

Let’s take a look at the major indexes aggregate R-SQ Polynomial trend line (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ & Russel 2000 adding VXX to even it out).

Notable is the upward swing over the next time period – trading day.

So contrary to the current NASDAQ trend, we do have some hope of a reversal in tech.

More over on the TOS platform one can survey the option chains to identify a buildup of market maker interest; in this case the AUG (52) option chain has dramatic increase over the JUL (24) option chain.

JUL Option Chain MMM is +6.383. 

AUG Option Chain MMM is +11.44

I believe the latter is correlated to the release of the iPhone 8, set to hit the market sometime in July.

Adding more input data to validate our position of a possible breakout is the scorification (a word used in the early days of shale oil rock trading) of the CODEX and Covered Return (cyclic monetization) formula.

CXQ C-RTN PROBABILITY
0.59782 0.98380 0.1778%

The CXQ is a Pearson Excel formula, based on two arrays – of which we won’t disclose.  What you want to know is the scorification signal, that is if the reading is out of the negative than consider a buy.  Negative is a sell.  That’s the simplistic way of explaining CXQ.  The more in depth way defines the said asset in question characteristics in relationship to volatility.

The C-RTN is the Covered Return (reduced cost basis) formula.  It is correlated to the CXQ, again with price move volatility.

Probability is the score you want to really pay attention to, since it will give you a leading indication of the asset’s price move.  Typically we want a 68% probability for buying and/or selling – either way.

APPL is currently a sell signal till Friday.

Below is the CXQ Option Chain Matrix.  You have the reduced cost basis Limit Entry per each Call and Put side; the Bid and Ask calculated to show profit or loss in regards to long and short strangle spreads.

Strangle CALL PUT
Strike 145 143
Limit Entry 2.28 2.35
Bid 2.27 2.37
Ask 2.39 2.45
Implied Vol 20.58% 17.21%
Delta 0.43 (0.47)
Volume 5595 1968
Prob OTM 59.58% 51.12%

The DTE is the time decay calculation per premium at the time of expiration.  This is close to the Theta but we use a different formula based on time of entry to the number of days left in the option chain before expiration.

The Delta and Implied Volatility are shown along with the Probability of Out of the Money (OTM) percentage.

Probability OTM is typically traded at two legs out, however one wants to match up both the Call and Put premium as close as possible to minimize the negation of profits when trading a strangle spread.

VANGUARD INFO TECH INDEX-BUFFER YOUR PROFITS

If you haven’t incorporated Vanguard Info Tech Index (NYSE: VGT) into your investment portfolio you’re at least missing out on solid indicator for tracking the NASDAQ.

Since June 12th, VGT has moved up 4.41% or $6.18 hitting resistance at $146.32 from $140.01.  A purchase of 100+ shares could have covered some of the AAPL drawdown, hypothetically speaking.  VGT options spread are too large for swing trading.

Below is a TOS chart of VGT.   At the close today (June 27th) VGT tagged the 377 EMA (Green) line on the 15 day – 1 hour chart.  Typically once the 377 EMA is tagged, the asset will rebound up to the 34 EMA (Red) line – Price is $144.09.

vgt june tos charts

About R. Kambak – is a day trader and consultants portfolio development for wealth building.  He is open to evaluating investment portfolio hypotheticals, simulations and horizon predictions. His portfolios can be found on Motif – Back Up The Truck and Codex.  

Anyone interested in obtaining the CXQ Excel Model please write to him: grtsmarket@gmail.com.  

In the Subject: CXQ Request

The TOS charts are posted with credit to the platform/brokerage.  All MSN Excel spreadsheet posts are solely Mr Kambak’s own creation.  Duplication is strictly prohibited. Use of Mr Kambak’s writerly comments can be obtained through a formal request. 

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