01/02/15 04:49 PM

 

Symbol

Price

Offer

Net Chng

P Act

IV 15D

SV

SD

Trend

LST>OPN

52WK

1

TSLA

219.31

219.01

-3.10

-0.4475

0.2752

0.69

4.19

<

FALSE

-24.74%

2

HD

103.43

103.14

-1.54

-0.3575

0.1214

0.46

1.27

<

FALSE

-2.44%

3

UNG

14.96

14.88

0.19

-0.0820

0.3167

0.74

0.34

<

FALSE

-46.36%

4

LOW

67.70

67.47

-1.10

-0.2750

0.1265

0.47

0.86

<

FALSE

-2.69%

5

TWTR

36.56

36.65

0.69

0.0660

0.3243

0.75

0.49

>

TRUE

-48.09%

6

PWRD

19.25

19.37

3.49

0.1095

0.1762

0.55

1.47

>

TRUE

-26.65%

7

FB

78.45

78.46

0.43

-0.0235

0.1995

0.59

0.48

<

FALSE

-4.53%

8

AAPL

109.33

109.09

-1.05

-0.3180

0.1939

0.58

1.70

<

FALSE

-8.70%

9

FDX

172.45

172.32

-1.21

-0.2460

0.1256

0.47

1.67

<

FALSE

-6.03%

10

JNJ

104.52

104.46

-0.05

-0.1365

0.1096

0.44

0.55

<

FALSE

-4.54%

11

WFM

50.13

50.04

-0.29

-0.1195

0.1716

0.55

0.49

<

FALSE

-13.21%

12

GME

33.80

33.78

0.00

-0.0345

0.3123

0.74

0.35

<

FALSE

-32.40%

13

VXX

30.99

30.92

-0.52

-0.0870

0.4659

0.90

1.06

<

TRUE

-43.88%

14

TLT

127.32

127.54

1.40

0.1275

0.0876

0.39

0.77

>

TRUE

-0.31%

15

YHOO

50.17

50.12

-0.34

-0.0750

0.2452

0.65

0.53

<

FALSE

-4.66%

About this graphic*:  At the very top of is the “Time Stamp”, then starting at the left we have the Number ID, Ticker Symbol, Close Price, Calibrated Price Offer, Net Change of the Day, Price Action of the Day, a calibrated Implied Volatility for a 15 day horizon, Statistical Volatility, Standard Deviation of the Price Range Set (Open, Current, Close, Day High/Low; Intraday Trend Directional Move, Boolean Logic (TRUE means current price is above the opening price of the day, FALSE means it’s below); the the price position percentage relative to the 52 WK High.  What more could you ask for in statistical, fuzzy logic analysis?

Context: What this shows as an aggregate picture is whether the asset is viable enough to trade  for a reasonable profit, proving insight to the directional move and price anomalies (PWRD).  We can compare pair correlations (FB and TWTR: Price Action is the leading indicator) and track “pull backs” during intraday trading (AAPL has a high Statistical Volatility).  We like to scalp VXX so here we see a disparity between the Net Change and Price Action that signals a change in direction along with the high Statistical Volatility meaning the price range is spread out.

THE TRADING TABLE

1TSLA:  Bounced off the Fib 50% (202.48) for a text book pull back to the 38% (220.88) then headed south again.  On our graph – it’s a bearish trend at -24.74% below its 52 WK High.

2) HD: Since early August HD has been on a tear north.  Peaking with gains at +30.91%, we have a SELL signal now, as it dropped -2.44% from its 52WK High going into 2015.  Trading volume has been light, but we expect HD to head south with the current cold snap jet stream plaguing most of the Midwest.  HD is headed to 101.48 so lean into the Puts spreads for the final days of the JAN options.

3) UNG: With another Polar system blanketing much of the Midwest and Eastern seaboard in the US, UNG has dropped -37.6% since before November’s Thanksgiving day, over -408% for the year, and -46.36% from it’s yearly high, we think it’s hit bottom at $14.77 showing a glimmer of reality pricing.  Since 2008 UNG has dropped -485% below freezing; breaking its low of lows in 20911 ($15.74).  We don’t usually trade UNG, but it caught our eye today.  Going into the first quarter UNG typically is a bullish play.

4) LOW:  We threw it in just to compare to HD. Your call.

5) & 7)L TWTR & FB:  We expect a diversification of directional moves here.  TWTR is headed north and FB is headed south simply because one is overbought and one is oversold. Do the historical price comparison to the see the diversion. FB is right now squared off on the 62% Fib or $78.40 (Close was $78.48, but that splitting hairs).  We have a near perfect Triangle formation, that is split at the middle, meaning a new pivot price level.  But gravity is going to make its play on  FB so hang on to your hats as the market roller coasters is going to make a roller coaster drop on Monday’s opening.  FB will follow with at least a $2 buck loss (great – “break even” – Long Put set up for a short play on the JAN 15 options) to the 50% Fib or $77.35.  Make this a priority play in your game book, and signularly the best profit maker in the coming week along side AAPL and HD.

6) PWRD:  This is an example of a High Frequency Trade price dislocation that you’re not told about on CNBC.  Absolutely “front running” illegal “quote stuffing” ping driven nanosecond machine driven algorithms manipulating price setting.  If you didn’t know, HFTs now have algorithms that scan the market and geopolitical headlines for “high impact nouns, adjectives” that translated into designated binary coded syntax calibrated to the their trading algos that will trigger trade executions even before you’ve gotten the news on Twitter. Talk about having your finger on the “pulse” of everything.  Consequently, HFTs simply overwhelm the market makers at the opening and you just put a hundred million dollars in your offshore account.

8) AAPL: (or should it be Macintosh?): We could make a living just off of AAPL.  Gotta love it’s volatility and measure of uncertainty these days.  Our last trade, JAN 15 Long Put limit price entry was $113.04 on December 29, 2014 with a target price of $109.18.   In two days we gained 4.31% in price move on our JAN Long Put at the $113 Strike.

13)  VXX:  Our “player”.  It gained about 6% in the first half of trading, retreated, then bumped up as the S&P 500 dropped a smug +53% going into the close.   We’re in lots of welcomed volatility on this one so it’s staying on our radar for scalp option trades.  We use VXX to cover any drawdowns when the picking is ripe, and it usually is during some point in time during the trading session.

9, 10, 11, 14, 15):  FDX is going to remain bearish.  JNJ is undecided.  WFM is not a buy and hold asset.  Oh, wow, CNBC said WFM is up a whooping +817%… since 2008. That doesn’t tell me where its headed. The WFM, SFM and TFM: an exercise in correlative asset allocation.  TLT can be a robust player when the market has a a lot of bearish volatility, and a back up to VXX.  So we threw it in the basket.  YHOO is predictability transparent.

We put in a deep in the money Long Call with the JAN 15 option chain back in October, 2014. The peak price target of the underlying asset was $53.54 by the time NOV option expiration came around.  Ah, gee we were off by $.14 cents!  YHOO is caught in a sojourn range since hitting a support price of $48.85, this one has an earnings report coming out 11 days after the JAN 15 option expiration so expect some pickup in volatility  YHOO has been unusually quiet (low volumes) since Christmas Eve. YHOO exhibited a typical 7-day cyclic run north, then just fell like a rock, nearly going back to the previous low.  

When we see a stock struggling to tread higher price levels, it’s a signal that a bearish play is formulating.

Peace.

Skokie

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