WHAT WE PRESENT IS THE DATA OUTPUT FROM A NEW MODEL UNDER DEVELOPMENT.

THIS PROVIDES A LIST OF TEN EQUITIES THAT MEET CRITERIA (THEORETICAL, CONCEPTUAL AND STATISTICAL) FOR A POSSIBLE ROBUST PAYOFF.  MARKET PERFORMANCE IS UNPREDICTABLE, THUS RISK AVERSION IS PARAMOUNT WITH ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. SHOCK EVENTS CAN CHANGE THE MARKET DRAMATICALLY.  THIS POST IS SOLELY TO BE USED AS A BENCHMARK FOR COMPARISON OF YOUR OWN TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTALLY ANALYSIS STRATEGY.

 

CONSIDER THE MARKET TO BE LIKE A BANKS’ LOCKED SAFE – WITH A SPECIFIC SET OF SECRET CODED NUMBERS.  TO BE ABLE TO UNLOCK THE BANK’S SAFE, ONE MUST KNOW THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF NUMBERS.

 

WHAT TO LOOK FOR TO FIND A ROBUST PROBABILITY PAYOFF:

 

A HIGH ROI PERCENTAGE COMBINATION OF EQUITIES WITH A POSITIVE INDEX PERCENTAGE, TREND IS CONSISTENT WITH CHOSEN BASKET OF ASSETS AND OVERALL PORTFOLIO PRICE CHANGE REFLECTS THE SAME;

 

TREND CAN EITHER BE LONG OR SHORT (JUST MAKE SURE THERE ARE CORRELATED SIGNALS FOR CONFIRMATION) MM (HOLDS THE TREND LONGER), ALPHA (.35 -.40), BETA (.74 -.90), SIGMA (<O.O5); QUANT CONFIRMATION TO TREND DIRECTION; PRICE TARGET HAS GREATEST PRICE RANGE VALIDATED BY THE PRICE LEAD INDICATOR AND EXPECTED RETURN >1.00%

 

DEFAULT TIME HORIZON IS 45 DAYS FOR ALL EQUATIONS AND/OR 1/16 ANNUALIZED RETURN ON INVESTMENT

 

WHAT WE LOOK FOR ARE HIGH LIQUIDITY, PRICE ACTION, OPTIONABLE, AND LOTS OF BLINKING ON OUR DATA PLATFORM.  EVEN THOUGH AN ASSET MAY PRESENT AN UP TREND, A MEAN REVERSION IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE – REFLECTED AS A LEADING INDICATOR ON THE POSTED GRAPHS.

 

FOR EXAMPLE:  ABT IS UP +1.41% OR +.50 BY MID DAY.  HOWEVER ON OUR PLATFORM ABT SHOWS A FORECAST PRICE MOVE AT -$2.82; A SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT IN DIRECTION.  ON THE 1HR CHART WE HAVE A “V” CONFIGURATION THAT IS A TYPICAL SIGNAL FOR A REVERSAL IN DIRECTION, AND THE PRICE LEAD COMPARISON IS AT AN EQUILIBRIUM – OR ZERO MOVEMENT.

 

THE MARKET MAKERS ARE FORMULATING A NEW BOOK PRICE AT THIS POINT.  USING THESE INDICATORS WE DETERMINE THE POINT OF ENTRY IS THE DAY AVERAGE PRICE AND THE FORECAST PRICE IS OUR TAKE PROFIT TARGET. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL MOVE PREDICTED SO ONE CAN TAKE A LOOK AT THE OPTIONS BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL FOR A $2 MOVE WOULD GIVE ONE THE NECESSARY “BREAK EVEN” MOVE TO BE IN-THE-MONEY IF THIS  IS TRADED 25 TO 45 DAYS OUT. (HOWEVER, WHEN TRADING OPTIONS MAKE SURE THE IMPLIED VOLATILITY MEETS THE DIRECTIONAL CRITERIA IN THE CONTEXT AROUND A COVERED RETURN FORMULARY.  ONE WANTS A TIGHT BID/ASK SPREAD – NO MORE THAN $0.05 – AND A 60% OR GREATER PROBABILITY OF ITM AT THE APPROPRIATE STRIKE PRICE.)

 

LEGEND

 

AGGREGATE PERFORMANCE: EXPECTED RETURN OF BASKET OF EQUITIES; INDEX COMPARISON TO THE S&P 500; LIQUIDITY OF PORTFOLIO; OVERALL TREND; AND AGGREGATED PRICE CHANGE

 

GRTS PORTFOLIO: TRADE SIGNAL DIRECTION; CONFIRMING TREND;

T OR MM: COMPARISON BETWEEN LIQUIDITY (T) AND ON BALANCE VOLUME (MM) – IF YOU SEE A LONG SIGNAL IN CONFLICT WITH THE TREND SHOWING “DOWN” AND THERE IS A “T” SIGNAL THEN A MEAN REVERSION IS POSSIBLE.   AS WELL, “MM” CAN PRESENT A SIMILAR ANOMALY WHEN THE CONGRUENCE OF SIGNALS ARE CONTRARIAN.

 

FUZZJECTIVE GREEKS: FUZZY LOGIC FORMULARY – ALPHA, BETA, SIGMA (RISK) [ BEST SCENARIO: ALPHA 35 TO 45; BETA .70 TO .90; SIGMA BELOW 0.05

 

QUANT:  BASIC OPTION CHAIN SIGNAL FOR OPTION SPREAD FORMULATION

 

PRICE FORMATION: MOST IMPORTANT SIGNAL HERE IS THE COMPARISON BETWEEN LAST (CURRENT) AND P LEAD (PRICE LEADING INDICATOR).  MAKE A NOTE OF THE VARIANCE IN COMPARISON TO THE FORECASTED PRICE AND CHECK THE CHART FOR THE CURRENT TREND.  IF THE PRICE LEAD IS HIGHER, THAT MEANS THE MARKET IS LEANING INTO THE ASK OVER THE BID IN NET SHARES INVENTORY COMING ONTO T HE MARKET.

 

STATISTICS: RETURN ON CAPITAL ON AN INTRADAY BASIS, INTRADAY PRICE ACTION, EXPECTED RETURN BASED ON CURRENT DATA; IMPLIED VOLATILITY ANNUALIZED (1/16); AND VOLATILITY (ASSETS PRICE CHANGE)

INQUIRIES: Email me at: grtsmarket@gmail.com

(DISCLAIMER: THIS IS STRICTLY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES.  WE MAKE NO RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TRADING THESE POSTED EQUITIES NOR ARE PROMOTING ANY BROKERAGES OR FINANCIAL SERVICES. THUS THIS NOTICE RELIEVES US FROM ANY LIABILITY ON THE PART OF THE READER’S DECISIONS TO TRADE AND OR INVEST IN THE POSTED EQUITIES.)

 

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